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Thursday, January 3, 2019

US Stock Market Futures Tank... Trump Says How Low Unemployment Is, Contradicting His pre-Presidency Claim

While, stock market futures where tanking, Trump maintained how strong the jobs are in America.. However, he forgot to tell people, how he calculates unemployment personally, verses how it's really calculated officially..

In 2015, Trump made the statement, "Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5.0% unemployment."  What he was referring to is, the 'official unemployment' verses the 'real unemployment'.  In 1994, Bill Clinton changed how unemployment was calculated, to give the illusion that employment was good, even though job seekers who had given up, due to ruff economic conditions, would be eliminated from the calculation.  His fuzzy economics produced the illusion that more people were employed than really were. It changed how historic economic figures were calcuated in terms of unemployment, thus changing economics itself.

Historic economics is used to gauge current economics by comparing past statistics to the current ones.  Markets rely on statistics. However, economics itself was reset in 1994, making for a new age of economics.  Unemployment now seemed low and much lower than it actually was.  In the great depression unemployment reached as high as 24.9% using pre-1994 unemployment, 'official unemployment' up to 1994 before Bill Clinton decided to eliminate a great portion of the would be working class, if the economy truly was what was touted.

reference article:

Using the old calculation, many refer to it as "real unemployment," including good economist who still uphold true statistic calculations.  Real unemployment (official back then), climbed to over 20% by 1931, but quickly dropped from its peak of 24.9% in 1933, down to  21.7 in 1934, down to 20.1 in 1934, and from thereafter (post-1935) it continued to drop lower throughout the rest of depression.

(reference article:

In the modern area, we can compare unemployment of the great depression to now by using "real unemployment".  Real unemployment is still tracked by some economist to get a historical picture. It can be tracked through: 

reference article:
When Bill Clinton changed how unemployment was calculated, it the real unemployment was under 20%. I view anything over 20% as a strong depression.  The blue line depicted in the image above is the real unemployment rate. Unemployment stayed in check until the 2008 crisis, so Bill Clinton's phony economics was not fully seen until the 2008 Housing Market Crash.  If you look at the image above it stays well above 20% since then and to this day.  Real unemployment, (formally official) above 20% at a longer period of time when compared to the great depression.  21.3% was the most current unemployment rate give by, for November 2018.  Which means unemployment has been over 20% during Trump's presidency and  over 20% for 10 years vs 5 years during The Great Depression.

Essentially, we have been at +20% unemployment rate for twice as long as The Great Depression.

Trump went on to say in reference to unemployment back in 2015, "the numbers are probably 28, 29, as high as 35, in fact, I recently heard 42%".  Trump before getting in office, acknowledged that official unemployment was a farce.  So he knows, but while in office, he states that unemployment, is at a record low and boast how he saved the economy, even while full knowing these now official statistics are not the true unemployment rate. 

As stock market futures continued to ramp down in foreign trade, Trump made the claim again how unemployment was at a record low.  This was while, Apple cut back it forecast and tumbled 9% in foreign market trading.

reference article: Apple lives up to Wall Street’s fears with massive revenue shortfall

While Trump stated unemployment was 42%, CNN called official unemployment, "real unemployment" and under 5% to promote Obama and bash Trump.  I don't agree with either for the record. The unemployment has been depressionary through Obama and Trump administrations and there has been no catalyst to life the economy out of the turmoil that unfolded in 2008.

When all the leaders lie, it effects the real situation, and solutions cannot be found as a result. The leader lies to promote his rein.  Obama did it, Trump is doing the same.  The two look grossly different, but economically nothing has changed.  America has a debt problem that got out of hand in the 80's.  Various economic bubbles where created to give the illusion the American economy is strong.  The truth is it is strong in capacity, because of America's prominence based on past strength and control of global resources, but it is now severely damaged due to fake economics and debt bubbles.  

Trump went on to talk about the wall and the government shut down to get the funding.  He seems to put forth the illusion the economy is fixed.  If it is fixed what did Trump do to magically fix it?  He went from claiming unemployment is 42% to it's 5% or less.  If that is true what did Trump do to drop unemployment from +37% according to his own claims?

Funding for a wall will not fix the economy, it will not fix the housing market, it will provide only temporary jobs to build a wall and the further illusion that America doesn't have an economic problem.  People cannot live in a wall, it will not produce consumer products, it will not contribute to the real economy, it does not build society infrastructure such as factories, roads, or bridges.  A wall will only expand the current failing police state, that currently houses the most prisoners in the world.  Many of which are in prison over the current drug war and are created by the lack of real sustainable jobs and trades.  The police may be dedicated and patriotic American's, but they have no understanding of the real economy.  They may like the extra pay and attention, but it only further desensitizes the real situation. 

America's debt problems are immense and it extends into education and healthcare. Many students buy into the illusion the economy is strong, they get into debt, and can never pay it off.  American's who get sick face a similar situation, they cannot afford the care, so they get into perpetual debt to doctors, nurses, the hospital, and the pharmaceutical companies. They are legalized drug dealers.   The same struggling students decide to become part of the system of debt, because like within the police state there are many jobs for SS and camp workers, there are many jobs for the Medical Mafia to pimp legal drugs to people in dire need, due to health issues.

Capitalism just very well may be a disease.  A piece of paper the mechanism to pass it.       

Make America Honest. 

---------------------- By Neal Vanderstelt Forex Trader, Market Analyst, Trading System Designer Please rate, recommend, and comment below: