Saturday, April 30, 2011

Gold Daily


Gold sets yet another new all time record high showing no weakness.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Gold Price Sets New Record High


Price of Gold once again sets record high despite speculation that commodities were about to weaken. See gold chart above.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Gold Gets A Bump Up After FOMC Meeting


The FOMC meeting ended with uncertainties and some limited answers. The FED will not have a Q3 but will continue Q2. The FED is worried about inflation but raised the maximum inflation by .8%. Gold took advantage and set yet another high. No raising of rates - no time-frame as to when the fed will tighten. Another flush down the toilet for the USD.

*The indicators on the chart shown above do not repaint after bar closes.
Click here for my full trading system

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Gold Holding Above 1500 After Dipping Below



*click chart above to zoom in on gold chart*
Gold fell below 1500 temporarily but has since retook the psychological level. As noted in my chart above the bulls have been in charge of this daily move since Feb. 08 2011 and the first wave up of the move began on Oct. 02 2010. Of course Gold has been in a Secular uptrend for sometime but for us day traders a trend is a trend. The 2 indicators in this chart do not repaint after bar closes and are featured in my trading system (1 indicator (not shown) slightly repaints in my trading system but if you follow my rules it is easily dealt with and offers valuable signals). Click here for my full trading system

This system when used with proper money management and stop losses is profitable for me. The key is using the right time-frames.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Does Obama Have a Clue When It Comes To Deficit Spending?

While the Federal Reserve leads the US down the path of destruction Obama looks more clueless as the debts continue to skyrocket. Just recently he apologized that he once voted against raising the debt ceiling. Uh, hello that was the only time you were right! Things such as zero-percent interest rate policy, quantitative easing, and raising the debt ceiling are not measures to control debts or deficits.

As the deficits grow uncontrollably Obama acts like he just doesn't understand. Much like when Bernanke replied "I don't know" where the money went. Obama used to ride the argument the debts are because of Bush administration. NO Sir! These debts are incurring on your clock and because of your own policies. Trying to prop Wallstreet is not is not a of number 1 task of a president or leaders of any country.

Don't forget Obama also recommended and appointed Bernanke and had no intention of correcting the deficit that Bush had ran up. It wasn't enough that Bush administration ran up the deficits to record pace and levels. No it wasn't quite enough!!! Obama outspent Bush in only 100 days while Bush was in office of president for 8yrs. Obama wins the hall-of-fame for spending and bankrupting the people! Obama clearly doesn't care about what hole he digs the US into financially.

Despite at onetime being against raising the debt ceiling, Obama now claims it was a mistake and it is actually a vital measure to raise the debt limit because it is actually vital to the economy. Wow what an utter lie. It is clear that this man can't hold any water to his own arguments and will just change as it so fits him. Naturally he voted against raising it while Bush was in Office. Amazing! When he can't point the finger at Bush anymore he will just change sides on his arguement and outright admit he doesn't know what he's doing.

"The president has asked us to increase the debt limit, in other words to increase the limit on the credit card, without doing anything about the source of the problem. And we've got to deal with the source of the problem," House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Monday on Fox News Channel.

I personally am sick of having a president that is cool. Ok so you look "cool" to the younger people but do your job 1st and foremost. Yeah spending money does look cool but I could care less how cool you look or act especially when the money your spending doesn't belong to you. To me as a responsible adult you are anything but cool.

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Do Currencies Have Nicknames?

I guess everyone can have a nickname so why not a currency. Here are some of the popular Forex nicknames for the various currency pairs they are associated with:
GBP/USD = Cable
EUR/USD = Euro or Fiber
USD/CHF = Swissy
USD/CAD = Loonie
AUD/USD = Ozzie
NZD/USD = Kiwi
EUR/JPY = Euppy (pronounced "Yuppy")
GBP/JPY = Gopher
EUR/GBP = Chunnel (from channel tunnel between Britain & France)
USD/JPY = Yen

Stand alone nicknames (note some are the same as a pair):
USD = Greenback or Buck (Greenback - given to USD because of it's green print) - (bucks - before paper money buckskins were once used for trading)
CAD = Loonie or Caddy ("Loonie" came from the bird on the Canadian coin)
AUD = Aussie (Aussie - no apparent reason for the name other than it sounds cool)
NZD = Kiwi (Kiwi - Is a kind of bird that can't fly which happens to be a national symbol of New Zealand)
CHF = Swissy (Swissy - people just started calling it the "Swissy" apparently because it sounds like Swiss and was funner to add a y or ie to the end)
GBP = Sterling or Cable (Cable - from Trans-Atlantic cable between US & Britain)
JPY = Yen A name in Japanese that means round circular object or coin.

Why is the Swiss dollar abbreviated CHF?
CH is the international abbreviation for Switzerland -- comes from Latin "Confederatio Helvetica..

The purpose of knowing can be important if talking about a particular pair or currency with another trader or reading an article where slang is used. It's a little funner too I guess and a little easier to have a conversation than sounding out every pair or abbreviation. Some currency nicknames do have a historical meaning behind the name so it helps build up the knowledge if you know the meaning behind the name. Of course for JoeBlow Public none of this matters but for a currency trader it is at least fashionable or trendy and fits in with the niche.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Daily Trends - Weekly Close Analysis

















(click on any chart to expand - click on adds to find the indicators I use - they are not freebies)
This will be a new feature to this blog called the "Weekly Close Analysis". Here we will analyze the daily chart patterns of various trading instruments within Metatrader 4.0.


VIX

We will start off measuring volatility index also called the VIX. Some like to call this the "fear index" because it is believed to measure fear or risk. When the Vix is in a downtrend it is bullish (risk takers) and when it's in an uptrend it is bearish (fear). The VIX has what's called an inverse correlation to stocks. The Vix has been in a weak downtrend (bullish for stocks) closing below the 50 LWMA and or special indicator has been in a sell pattern. LWMA = Linear Weighted Moving Average.


DJI30

Now that we see the Vix is in a downtrend we can see that the DJI30 (Dow Jones Index) is in an uptrend and my indicator has been screaming buy since 3/18/2011.
Q1 earnings season kicks off Monday. Nervous investors will be anxious to measure the impact on corporate results after Japan’s Earthquake and Nuclear Disaster from the 9.1 great quake. Most insurers in the property-casualty insurance sector are likely to post losses after New Zealand and Japan earthquakes as well as Australia floods. After Fridays close the government managed to stay open with Congressional leaders and the White House reached a late-hour deal. $38.5 billion will be cut from the original budget for the fiscal year that runs through September in what leaders called the biggest annual spending reduction in history but the spiraling out of control deficit could reach $1.5 trillion in 2011 alone. There was no market reaction because the markets are closed for the weekend.


GOOGLE

Ironically Google has been trading in a bit of a down trend closing below the 50 LWMA. Google just recently agreed to antitrust deal on ITA.


Exxon

Exxon Mobil pulled back above the 50 LWMA and my indicator has been screaming buy 3/17/2011. Q1 2011 Exxon Mobil Corp Earnings Conference Call Thursday, April 28, 2011.


HSI

The Hang Seng Index has been rapidly moving higher the entire trading week. Despite the optimism China has issued price controls to control inflation.


DAX

The Dax rebounding from a sharp fall. The ECB (European Central Bank) raised rates 25 basis points to 1.25% despite pleading from Portugal that they need a bailout. Germany the Euros largest member has been opposed to bailout of the smaller Euro-Zone members. Earlier in the weak German Industrial Production came in at 1.6% MOM (month over month) for FEB2011 which was much stronger than 0.5% expected. The YOY (year over year) reading was 14.8% and also much better than 13.2% that was expected indicates the German industrial economy was strong.


Siemens

“We expect the growth rate to ease,” Chief Financial Officer Joe Kaeser. The company said earnings in the quarter that just ended were burdened by a “disappointing” renewable energy division. This quote was from Bloomberg News.

Siemens retraced down towards the daily 50 LWMA but still stayed above it. It did not look strong above the 50 LWMA.


FTSE

UK stocks mimicked the DAX and had a strong rebound.


CAC

Candian stocks followed along as well.


Nikkei225

Despite that large natural disaster that occurred the Japanese economy had been doing ok before the accident so was able to take back some of it's huge losses. It did however fail to close above it's 50 LWMA on the Daily Chart.

* now Corn, Wheat, Sugar Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum among many others can be traded within Metatrader. Not all FOREX brokers have this but there are some that do.


Gold

Making record highs and on the front page of every newspaper. Gold has flirted with reversal but surging to new highs from US dollar weakness and lots of political turmoil. Imagine being a foreigner and reading the US government might have to shut down at the same time the US is at war with Afghanistan, Iraq (occupied), and Libya.


Crude

Crude oil as priced in USD has been carving out new highs and trading strongly above the psychological level of $100. This level has been mentioned in the past few years with weak dollar policy and the United States dependence on foreign controlled oil in many territories that are anti-US. The Egyptian and Libyan crisis have been key drivers of the push above $100.


Corn

Corn gaped higher on 3/18/2011 and has since been trending higher. The gap up from 629.25 never closed. Rising demand for corn for ethanol producers is pushing reserves in the US to the lowest point in 15 years. Corn reserves will fall to a projected 675 million bushels in late August, when the harvest begins. But be careful going long. In my experience when you see big headline news that's all over the wire that is extremely bullish or bearish it can often be a contrarian indicator.


Wheat

Wheat decided to break above it's 50 LWMA and follow Corn higher. But unlike Corn, Wheat isn't carving out new highs so in that sense is counter trending higher. Because of higher prices some importers are growing more wheat.


Sugar #11

Sugar went against the grain and went lower trading below it's 50 LWMA. Hurting demand was the worst ever earthquake to hit Japan and meltdown of it's nuclear facilities.


USDX

Behind the rising commodities prices was a very weak USDX. With the Euro going for a 2nd round of rate hikes the Federal Reserve Bank is still hold rates at near zero. As a consequence the US Dollar has been trading near record lows while the Australian dollar is making new record highs well above parity. At the same time Gold has made historical record levels. The USDX remains in a very strong downtrend. A reaction to the budget could reverse the downtrend but that is too early to say with the markets being closed at the time an agreement was made by US Politicians. The QE program will have to end soon and rates will have to be raised before there is any confidence in the dollar. This shouldn't stop smart investors from capitalizing by playing against the dollar while the USFED has the money creation pedal at full throttle. So be sure you hedge accordingly.



Who am I?

I am an expert chartist, a trader, a metatrader indicator and system designer. I blog to keep my mind in the market but I do sell a few products of my own. I have no affiliates but I do have products for sales. If you buy products from me you are supporting me and not some big fish. You also get a unique product that can make you money.
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Does anyone own Gold? Gold is at record highs!!


(click chart to enlarge)
In our historical gold chart (weekly timeframe) we basically have what appears to be a 90 degree angle for gold prices. This tells me that gold must be very valuable or inflation is out of hand and the currency is collapsing.

No matter how I try to justify this I can't see how Gold is worth nearly $1500 an ounce. As a trader I can but physically I can not justify this. I don't own Gold, I never have and never will. I've never owned diamonds and for diamonds I also can not justify their extreme value. The only exception is that happens to be the going rate apparently because people will pay what ever the price happens to be. People I know don't own any sizable amount of gold! It's not as if everyone gets up in the morning and says oh man I've got to get some gold or I won't be able to make it through the day.

But because the US dollar is weak governments buy it and the price will go up accordingly do to demand. It's only because the US Dollar and other currencies are weak and/or unstable so they buy up all kinds of gold and the price is going to the moon. As the US creates more money (from bailouts, low interest rates, ect) the price goes up for gold because it takes more dollars to buy the same items.

But I never see anyone ever buying any gold or looking to buy gold. Then there's that stupid saying: "This Stuff is like GOLD".. Ok big deal it's like gold - gold is worthless except for lure for fools that think it holds any type of real value. I know it can be used in industry but only a fool would rely on this stuff as there are many other cheaper metals that are more than adequate for industrial uses. Gold is not a major industrial metal unless you like to waste money.

I'm a pretty handy guy and I try to think of things I could build that would require gold to build. A car? A computer? A solar panel? NO!!! None of these product require gold to build. I can build high quality devices without ever having to use even a minut amount of gold. A jet? NO!!! How bout a UFO? You know I've never built a UFO but if I could I bet it wouldn't require gold lol!!!!

Golds real worth is probably just a bit better than silver in my opinion and even then the prices are only high because of the monetary policy. Lure and superstition shouldn't ever cause the prices we are seeing now. There's just not that kind of value in a metal that is only slightly superior to silver in industrial use.