Friday, April 8, 2011

Daily Trends - Weekly Close Analysis

















(click on any chart to expand - click on adds to find the indicators I use - they are not freebies)
This will be a new feature to this blog called the "Weekly Close Analysis". Here we will analyze the daily chart patterns of various trading instruments within Metatrader 4.0.


VIX

We will start off measuring volatility index also called the VIX. Some like to call this the "fear index" because it is believed to measure fear or risk. When the Vix is in a downtrend it is bullish (risk takers) and when it's in an uptrend it is bearish (fear). The VIX has what's called an inverse correlation to stocks. The Vix has been in a weak downtrend (bullish for stocks) closing below the 50 LWMA and or special indicator has been in a sell pattern. LWMA = Linear Weighted Moving Average.


DJI30

Now that we see the Vix is in a downtrend we can see that the DJI30 (Dow Jones Index) is in an uptrend and my indicator has been screaming buy since 3/18/2011.
Q1 earnings season kicks off Monday. Nervous investors will be anxious to measure the impact on corporate results after Japan’s Earthquake and Nuclear Disaster from the 9.1 great quake. Most insurers in the property-casualty insurance sector are likely to post losses after New Zealand and Japan earthquakes as well as Australia floods. After Fridays close the government managed to stay open with Congressional leaders and the White House reached a late-hour deal. $38.5 billion will be cut from the original budget for the fiscal year that runs through September in what leaders called the biggest annual spending reduction in history but the spiraling out of control deficit could reach $1.5 trillion in 2011 alone. There was no market reaction because the markets are closed for the weekend.


GOOGLE

Ironically Google has been trading in a bit of a down trend closing below the 50 LWMA. Google just recently agreed to antitrust deal on ITA.


Exxon

Exxon Mobil pulled back above the 50 LWMA and my indicator has been screaming buy 3/17/2011. Q1 2011 Exxon Mobil Corp Earnings Conference Call Thursday, April 28, 2011.


HSI

The Hang Seng Index has been rapidly moving higher the entire trading week. Despite the optimism China has issued price controls to control inflation.


DAX

The Dax rebounding from a sharp fall. The ECB (European Central Bank) raised rates 25 basis points to 1.25% despite pleading from Portugal that they need a bailout. Germany the Euros largest member has been opposed to bailout of the smaller Euro-Zone members. Earlier in the weak German Industrial Production came in at 1.6% MOM (month over month) for FEB2011 which was much stronger than 0.5% expected. The YOY (year over year) reading was 14.8% and also much better than 13.2% that was expected indicates the German industrial economy was strong.


Siemens

“We expect the growth rate to ease,” Chief Financial Officer Joe Kaeser. The company said earnings in the quarter that just ended were burdened by a “disappointing” renewable energy division. This quote was from Bloomberg News.

Siemens retraced down towards the daily 50 LWMA but still stayed above it. It did not look strong above the 50 LWMA.


FTSE

UK stocks mimicked the DAX and had a strong rebound.


CAC

Candian stocks followed along as well.


Nikkei225

Despite that large natural disaster that occurred the Japanese economy had been doing ok before the accident so was able to take back some of it's huge losses. It did however fail to close above it's 50 LWMA on the Daily Chart.

* now Corn, Wheat, Sugar Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum among many others can be traded within Metatrader. Not all FOREX brokers have this but there are some that do.


Gold

Making record highs and on the front page of every newspaper. Gold has flirted with reversal but surging to new highs from US dollar weakness and lots of political turmoil. Imagine being a foreigner and reading the US government might have to shut down at the same time the US is at war with Afghanistan, Iraq (occupied), and Libya.


Crude

Crude oil as priced in USD has been carving out new highs and trading strongly above the psychological level of $100. This level has been mentioned in the past few years with weak dollar policy and the United States dependence on foreign controlled oil in many territories that are anti-US. The Egyptian and Libyan crisis have been key drivers of the push above $100.


Corn

Corn gaped higher on 3/18/2011 and has since been trending higher. The gap up from 629.25 never closed. Rising demand for corn for ethanol producers is pushing reserves in the US to the lowest point in 15 years. Corn reserves will fall to a projected 675 million bushels in late August, when the harvest begins. But be careful going long. In my experience when you see big headline news that's all over the wire that is extremely bullish or bearish it can often be a contrarian indicator.


Wheat

Wheat decided to break above it's 50 LWMA and follow Corn higher. But unlike Corn, Wheat isn't carving out new highs so in that sense is counter trending higher. Because of higher prices some importers are growing more wheat.


Sugar #11

Sugar went against the grain and went lower trading below it's 50 LWMA. Hurting demand was the worst ever earthquake to hit Japan and meltdown of it's nuclear facilities.


USDX

Behind the rising commodities prices was a very weak USDX. With the Euro going for a 2nd round of rate hikes the Federal Reserve Bank is still hold rates at near zero. As a consequence the US Dollar has been trading near record lows while the Australian dollar is making new record highs well above parity. At the same time Gold has made historical record levels. The USDX remains in a very strong downtrend. A reaction to the budget could reverse the downtrend but that is too early to say with the markets being closed at the time an agreement was made by US Politicians. The QE program will have to end soon and rates will have to be raised before there is any confidence in the dollar. This shouldn't stop smart investors from capitalizing by playing against the dollar while the USFED has the money creation pedal at full throttle. So be sure you hedge accordingly.



Who am I?

I am an expert chartist, a trader, a metatrader indicator and system designer. I blog to keep my mind in the market but I do sell a few products of my own. I have no affiliates but I do have products for sales. If you buy products from me you are supporting me and not some big fish. You also get a unique product that can make you money.
my best trading system
my original trading system

10 comments:

  1. Hey Everybody,

    Below is a list of the highest ranking FOREX brokers:
    1. Best Forex Broker
    2. eToro - $50 minimum deposit.

    Here is a list of money making forex tools:
    1. ForexTrendy - Recommended Odds Software.
    2. EA Builder - Custom Indicators Autotrading.
    3. Fast FX Profit - Secret Forex Strategy.

    I hope you find these lists beneficial.

    ReplyDelete
  2. You may be eligible for a new solar program.
    Find out if you're eligble now!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Forex trading is way more easier when its traded on autopilot and EA Builder allows you to create your own free expert advisor.

    ReplyDelete
  4. QUANTUM BINARY SIGNALS

    Professional trading signals delivered to your mobile phone daily.

    Start following our signals today and earn up to 270% daily.

    ReplyDelete
  5. GPS robot tripled the $100k deposit [live proof]

    I just got done with a webinar with Mark and his partner, Antony, two days ago and it was AMAZING.

    During the webinar Mark and Antony shared their secrets to success and answered questions about their new version of the GPS Forex Robot that CAME OUT TODAY!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Forex Trendy is a state of the art software capable of detecting the most profitable continuation chart patterns. It scans through all the charts, on all time frames and analyzes every potential breakout.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it. BUT...

    PREPARE FOR THE WORST...

    Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex system recognizes the trend.

    PROBLEM: FALSE "STRONG TREND" INDICATION.

    The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make a profit. It looks like a "strong trend", but what usually happens next is a hard fall.

    To avoid falling into this trap, check for the SOLUTION to find a REAL trend:

    ==> http://www.forextrendy.com?vgcvasdiugf9g87346

    SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY

    Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The problem comes with the question: "Is the market trending NOW?" Whether the market is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is: "How well the market is trending?"

    And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.

    Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus only on the most reliable market trends. "Forex Trendy" is a software solution to find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend reliability for each Forex chart:

    ==> http://www.forextrendy.com?vgcvasdiugf9g87346

    ReplyDelete

  8. Please ignore previous Mail, Copy given below article while posting.

    Q: Which platform to use with this software?
    A: You can use any trading platform! Yes, you can use MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, TradeStation, NinjaTrader... because the software runs on dedicated computers and you only need a web browser to get the instant result online.

    Q: How many currency pairs does Forex Trendy scan?
    A: It scans 34 Forex pairs on 9 time frames from 1-minute to monthly. Together 34 pairs x 9 time frames = 306 charts.

    Q: What method is used to determine the trend?
    A: The trend reliability is determined by the "Trend Drawdown" - a method that uses no indicators, but pure price action. This method is explained in the ebook you will get in the subscription.

    Q: Which configuration do I need?
    A: Use the latest version of any major web browser (Internet Explorer, Firefox, Chrome, Safari, Opera...)

    Q: Does it work on mobile devices?
    A: Yes, it has been tested on several mobile devices and browsers.

    Try it now:

    http://www.forextrendy.com?laush394758


    "I really like your idea of taking only the best trending pair and even time frame. I am very impressed with such a simple and effective approach. I am not a tech guy and I am amazed how it works online without anything to install... I just log in two times a day and check for any interesting pairs."

    Stephen Ross, NY

    "I use this software every day together with my own system and two EAs. I execute trades only when trend drawdown is below 15% so I decreased the trade frequency, but I got two times better results. I am also interested in pattern recognition, I haven't tried it yet, but it looks amazing!"

    Julien Labonne, Florida, USA

    "I would highly recommend this service to anyone serious about forex trading. Another one that gives back much more than he receives. The real value for such a low price is rare in the forex industry."

    Sebastian, Germany

    http://www.forextrendy.com?laush394758

    ReplyDelete
  9. Let me explain the basic principle how most Forex systems work. They are tuned up

    to work in a specific market condition. They often make money in a trending

    market, but loose money in a choppy market. It is not a problem as long as the

    market is trending and the system is making more money than it loses. Such a

    system can be profitable for several months and you would be happy with it.

    BUT...
    PREPARE FOR THE WORST...
    Market change over time. A well designed system starts with trend analysis to

    stay away from potentially losing trades. There are two problems of how a Forex

    system recognizes the trend.
    PROBLEM: FALSE "STRONG TREND" INDICATION.
    The system responds only to immediate price action. An explosive price movement

    that is usually the result of news release is tempting people to jump in and make

    a profit. It looks like a "strong trend", but what usually happens next is a hard

    fall.
    To avoid falling into this trap, check for the SOLUTION to find a REAL trend:
    ==> http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834
    SECOND PROBLEM: TREND RELIABILITY
    Most systems use various indicators to determine the trend. Actually, there is

    nothing bad about using indicators. One Simply Moving Average can do the job. The

    problem comes with the question: "Is the market trending NOW?" Whether the market

    is trending or not trending is not like black and white. The correct question is:

    "How well the market is trending?"
    And here we have something called TREND RELIABILITY.
    Trends exist and they can be traded up and down for a profit. You have to focus

    only on the most reliable market trends. "Forex Trendy" is a software solution to

    find the BEST trending currency pairs, time frames and compute the trend

    reliability for each Forex chart:
    ==> http://www.forextrendy.com?nsjjd92834

    ReplyDelete
  10. "Which Forex pair and time frame is best to trade" is the frequently asked question and I want do give you the DEFINITE ANSWER.

    Are you expecting that I am going to say something like EUR/USD on 5-minute time frame or GBP/USD on daily...? No, it is not so simple, but SIMPLE ENOUGH we can figure it out!

    The "PROBLEM" is that markets change over time. If GBP/USD was a well trending currency pair a few years ago, today it is another one.

    I actually want to let you know about a SPECIAL TOOL that I use to find the BEST TRENDING PAIRS among all the Forex pairs.

    http://www.forextrendy.com?hfsdtb63546

    The software scans 34 Forex pairs on all time frames from minute to monthly. This way you pick the best trending pair and time frame at the current time.

    The system is running on our powerful computers, so you have nothing to download and install. Just join in and start using it within a FEW MINUTES! Get it on the link below:

    http://www.forextrendy.com?hfsdtb63546

    ReplyDelete