Thursday, December 17, 2009

Update - Dow Jones (dj30), banking gloom hits equities

The dow retreats on expectations that the fed will raise rates earlier in 2010 than was previous expected driving investors away from the carry trade / taking on more risk which strengthened the dollar. Suffering from the equities sell off were financials and basic-materials corporations. DJ30 still trades above my long term pivot on daily chart of 10,073 so is still technically in bull territory. This recent retreat puts dow at the bottom of a sideways channel. Should this channel break I expect to see lower levels and a test of the pivot. This is quite possible right now with increased pressure to get out of equities and into the dollar. On a 30m time-frame DJI30 is clearly oversold but there's a lack of buyers. 30m lower lows contradict the daily uptrend. Short-term resistance is at 10,294.

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