Thursday, October 28, 2010

Nasdaq In a Channel, Doubts about the Economy



Currently the Nasdaq100 is flirting with a 1hr uptrend line. The trendline is not correctly drawn to the laws of technical analysis but to show the zones in which NQ100 has traded in. Minus a few whipsaws the trendline has been very accurate. The top trendline has also shown the upside zones of this move. It has steadily traded in this range forming somewhat of a channel in the 1 hr timeframe.

This channel is off course within the upmove and can only be considered as a short term cycle at them moment. The interesting fact however is how many times these price areas have been abided by. At the same time I'm watching a special indicator which is basically a rolling pivot average. It is depicted by the thick yellow line on the chart. The red and blue lines that surround the pivot average are resistance and support lines. This move has been very tight according to my indicator. It has stayed within Resistance 1 (R1) and Support 1 (S1) and not reaching R2 or S2.

What that tells me is we have a market that is very unsure about itself. If you read the news it draws out further uncertainty. Doubts about the economy, doubts about bailouts, doubts about the strength of the dollar, doubts about employment, and doubts about the housing market. This market is filled with too many doubts. For that reason I want to be very cautious.

Current Position - None
Looking to short resistance and perhaps top
of channel but will watch other indicators to
make trade.

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