Saturday, October 16, 2010
Deflation? or Inflation?
[BOSTON FED STUDY ON INFLATION] Boston Fed President is clearly in the QE restart camp, expressing concern that inflation is too low and growth too slow for the Fed to meet its dual policy mandate. His worry about disinflationary pressures may reflect research from his economic team presented at the bank's confab. Their study notes the US has very little recent experience with low inflation rates (core CPI up just 0.8% Y/Y now) and their paper examines the behavior of inflation as it drops below 2% and also looks at Japan's experience. Their finding suggests that inflation can be expected to fall further, or at least will not be prevented from doing so over the year ahead. As such, they find this risk "merits serious attention" from policymakers.
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