Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Today's Market Notes Oct. 04, 2011

*Report in the Financial Times that EU ministers examining
ways of coordinating recapitalizations of financial institutions
lift some gloom off of market.

*Greece slipped closer to default.

*Eurozone ministers meeting over Greece crisis to see if Greece qualifies for more emergency funding. A final decisions on whether to pay out the next 8 billion Euros in aid on October 13th was canceled and EU/IMF inspectors will have several weeks to report back on Athens budget cuts. Ministers decided that that Greece could wait until mid-November.

*Greece has only enough money to pay pensions, salaries, and bondholders through mid-November says the finance minister. Greece is facing bankruptcy within weeks.

*Bernanke said the US economy is close to faltering and a disorderly default by Greece would have a serious impact. He went on to say that "Unless the European situation is brought under control, it could be a much more serious situation for the US economy". Bernanke also stated that the most significant factor for depressing consumer confidence was the poor job market performance. Bernanke did not tell us anything we didn't already know basically.

*Bernanke made headlines and boosted markets by stating the FED is prepared to take further steps to support the US economy but failed to define what those steps are.

*What could Bernanke do - is he just jawboning? Bernanke said he could use more tools but what exactly does that mean with every option seemingly exhausted? The FED could for example do Forward Guidance on the balance sheet, Increasing the balance sheet, Provide funds directly to the Private Sector. So there's still things they can do that are left in the tool-box but the situation is unusual. They might try to wait it out at least until November to see what happens with Greece and if the global picture stabilizes they might try to wait it out even longer to see if a technical recovery can take hold.

*Crude Oil staying in the 70's.

Michael Pento of Euro Pacific Capital admits he was wrong about being so bearish on bonds but says he will never buy Treasuries - "It is the biggest bubble the planet earth has ever seen..." citing the time to buy treasuries is when real interest rates are very high and inflation is falling. He was also right about gold. He said you have to be bullish on gold when the Fed is stuck at zero for at least another 2 yrs -- which guarantees real interest rates will be negative for a very long time.

Last month:
*No new jobs in August in US. 1st time since Feb. 1945.
*US postal service might end overnight delivery to stay in business.

****Under Editing****

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