Saturday, October 8, 2011
Will Greece Default? If So When? In October, Before The End Of The 2011, When The Euro Defaults. Video:
If Greece does default the question is when and what happens to the Euro afterwords? Investors are very nervous over this and many market strategist and economist feel Greece will default from between anytime now and then next 5yrs (or even longer) but they will default according to the consensus. Some even think Greece will default this month at the height of the situation but others feel they will be propped up before defaulting because it would be a bad time for it to happen while the economy is struggling or possibly it will be avoided at all cost - but I highly doubt Greece it that important - they are just important now do to the current global economic situation.
The ECB would like to avoid a default as it could cause a domino effect where other Euro members would follow suit. (The other "Pig States")Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal could follow Greece's lead and cause the Euro to cease to exist as a whole. The Pig State's all have their own sovereign debt issues so the matter is a serious one.
Italy and Spain were also downgraded by Fitch on Friday. On Sunday Germany and France disagreed about how to handle the situation but both seem to agree that a default would have catastrophic consequences for the Euro-zone.
France wants to tap into the EFSF rescue fund to recapitalize its own banks - Germany insisted that the fund should only be used a last resort when all national funds have been exhausted.
Needless to say there will be alot of topics to debate come the EU summit meeting on Oct.17-18 like how to kick the can, how far to kick the can - I'm being sarcastic but unfortunately that's all their doing.
Rumors have even popped up that Germany's Bundesbank will go back to a national currency (for example - the Deutschmark). Many German's have had a hard time accepting the Euro and would actually rather go back to a national currency which they believe would be more stable. Something that will likely not happen overnight despite the rumors and talk.
Despite all the negative news an IMF Official (Poul Thomsen) reported Greece is making good progress. "There has been good progress but there are still important issues to be discussed. We're not quite there yet. The review will hopefully conclude soon." Greek Finance Minister (Evangelos Venizelos) said the country had enough cash to make it to mid-November.
At the same time Greece is under fire so too is Bernanke. Bernanke makes bold statement that the "economy is faltering" and pressures congress to act. It would seem that everyone is begging for money from Athens to Washington, DC but the credit line is running dry.
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